Securing a domestic supply chain of critical minerals remains a strategic priority for industry leaders and policymakers but market dynamics add complexity to the path forward. While the long-term outlook for demand of lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements remains strong — driven by electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, grid-scale energy storage and advanced electronics — recent trends indicate a more complex near-term future. Prices for lithium, nickel and cobalt have fluctuated due to oversupply, changes in battery chemistries and shifts in global demand. However, with policy momentum growing and new incentives on the horizon, the U.S. is well-positioned to lead in critical mineral processing and refining.
Recent discussions around U.S. policy signal an increased commitment to supporting domestic production. Seeking to strengthen domestic production of critical minerals, President Donald Trump has issued an executive order intended to accelerate investment and streamline development pathways.
For mining, chemical and energy companies, the momentum presents a significant opportunity but also unique challenges. Many first-of-a-kind (FOAK) critical mineral projects must navigate technical scale-up, economic feasibility and execution risks to be successful.
Key Considerations for Scaling FOAK Projects
While federal incentives and private sector investment are increasing, economic viability remains the deciding factor in determining which projects move forward. Companies looking to scale from pilot to commercial operations should consider three key areas:
1. Balancing innovation with economic feasibility. Recent declines in lithium and cobalt prices highlight the importance of maintaining economic feasibility when scaling new technologies. Integrating progressive design-build strategies early can optimize capital expenditure and improve long-term viability. Start with a comprehensive, bottom-up estimate for capital expenditures for the base-case design. An early and accurate capital cost estimate is one of the most important factors in determining project viability.
2. Technology and permitting considerations. Unlike traditional mining operations, critical mineral processing requires specialized industrial infrastructure, including chemical conversion plants and refining capabilities. Permitting timelines, local regulatory frameworks and stakeholder engagement strategies all play crucial roles in keeping projects on track. A proactive approach to site selection, technology implementation and compliance planning can help mitigate unexpected hurdles.
3. De-risking capital investment with strategic execution models. Market fluctuations reinforce the need for flexible, staged investment strategies. Companies are increasingly turning to progressive execution models that provide cost transparency, phased scalability and risk mitigation. By aligning project execution with real-world market conditions, organizations can better navigate economic cycles and maximize long-term returns.
The Window of Opportunity Is Open
With policy tailwinds, a growing need for domestic refining capacity, and increased public and private investment, the U.S. remains well-positioned to become a leader in critical mineral production. Companies that take a structured, strategic approach to scaling projects will be favorably positioned to secure funding, accelerate commercialization and establish long-term success.
Bringing a first-of-a-kind project to commercial scale requires careful planning and execution. Learn more about optimal practices for de-risking investments and successfully scaling innovative technologies for critical mineral projects.